Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 1.066963 1.243189 1.438916 1.672362 1.943196 2.247509 2.615434
2025-01-19 0.751738 0.977602 1.256497 1.625973 2.102549 2.696654 3.493966
2025-01-26 0.609974 0.857444 1.186795 1.656718 2.309870 3.185791 4.450725
2025-02-02 0.540308 0.809078 1.189192 1.765165 2.615596 3.825380 5.678940
2025-02-09 0.474220 0.750155 1.161509 1.818153 2.839724 4.368906 6.834572
2025-02-16 0.416119 0.691429 1.121682 1.841286 3.014365 4.852045 7.953283
2025-02-23 0.364861 0.634152 1.073542 1.840406 3.144976 5.275106 9.022200
2025-03-02 0.320039 0.579988 1.021452 1.822995 3.241510 5.648269 10.047716
2025-03-09 0.285700 0.538406 0.983936 1.823299 3.364567 6.074864 11.209766
2025-03-16 0.247315 0.483741 0.915667 1.758478 3.361248 6.277007 11.991957
2025-03-23 0.238300 0.482527 0.943707 1.873442 3.699954 7.129019 14.065000
2025-03-30 0.211605 0.443159 0.894704 1.834355 3.739596 7.427465 15.118315
2025-04-06 0.185723 0.402486 0.839206 1.777706 3.742489 7.665071 16.102153
2025-04-13 0.163376 0.366138 0.787928 1.723366 3.744075 7.902255 17.120551
2025-04-20 0.151771 0.351152 0.778705 1.755729 3.929953 8.534237 19.038115
2025-04-27 0.148119 0.353257 0.806043 1.870572 4.307342 9.609972 22.040148
2025-05-04 0.140038 0.344032 0.807170 1.926687 4.560865 10.447171 24.615741
2025-05-11 0.130471 0.329919 0.795340 1.951185 4.744650 11.149927 26.969391
2025-05-18 0.120247 0.312733 0.774065 1.950253 4.867820 11.727253 29.096706
2025-05-25 0.110038 0.294150 0.747071 1.931815 4.946160 12.208236 31.050278
2025-06-01 0.101910 0.279786 0.728587 1.932137 5.070648 12.812842 33.379851
2025-06-08 0.091072 0.256736 0.685351 1.863490 5.011592 12.961485 34.578976
2025-06-15 0.090360 0.261099 0.713311 1.985239 5.462079 14.435730 39.373063